DP 2014-12Millennium Development Goals Scenarios to 2015 and Beyond: An Integrated Micro-Macro Modelling Approach
Briones, Roehlano M.

The Philippines has made considerable progress in attaining the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). However, achieving all the targets remains a daunting challenge, with goals for poverty, education, and maternal mortality unlikely to be attained by 2015. Focus has now shifted to informing the post-2015 development agenda, based on future scenarios for the macroeconomy and the MDGs. In this study, such assessment is done using an integrated macro-micro modelling approach, using the Maquette for MDG Simulation (MAMS), calibrated to Philippine data, over the period 2009-2025.

Findings for the scenario analysis are as follows: In the Base or business-as-usual scenario, MDG targets for household water and sanitation, as well as child health, will be met (or approximated) by 2015. However, those for education and maternal health will be attained in 2025 and 2021, respectively. The goal for poverty will not be achieved even by 2025. The national debt follows a downward trajectory over the simulation period.

Meanwhile in the alternative scenarios, significantly higher outlays for primary education, health, and infrastructure (equivalent to 2% of GDP) lead to earlier attainment of the education and maternal health goals (2019 and 2016, respectively); likewise significant gains will be realized in terms of per capita income and poverty reduction by 2025. Tax financing of higher outlays maintains the debt reduction path in the Base; however, financing through increased borrowing from abroad leads to persistent escalation of foreign debt. Hence, government should be cautious about proposals for dramatic increases in social spending and infrastructure to more quickly close development gaps, unless it is able to accompany increases in spending with commensurate tax effort.

keywords:computable general equilibrium (CGE), fiscal sustainability, poverty reduction, human development, millennium development goals (MDG), inclusive growth
Download PDF copy

Search by Year:

DP # Title
DP 2015-53The Use of MOOCs as a Potential Avenue to Modernize Learning in the Philippines
DP 2015-52Exploring Priority Areas for Philippine APEC 2015 Hosting: Building Inclusive Economies, Building a Better World
DP 2015-51 (Revised)Recent Trends in Out-of-School Children in the Philippines
DP 2015-50Assessment of Sources and Utilization of Funding of State Universities and Colleges
DP 2015-49Nongovernment Reforestation in the Philippines: Review, Analysis, and Ways Forward
DP 2015-48Comparative Assessment of Proposals to Amend the Personal Income Tax Law
DP 2015-47Massive Open Online Courses: A Primer for Philippine State Universities and Colleges
DP 2015-46Options for Supporting Rice Farmers Under a Post-QR Regime: Review and Assessment
DP 2015-45Philippines 2011 National Transfer Accounts Estimates of Consumption and Labor Income Age Profiles: Discussions on the 1991-2011 Age Profile Change and Implications on Economic Gains from the First Demographic Dividend
DP 2015-44The Culture of Patriarchy and Its Effects on the Human Rights of Girl-children in Cagayan de Oro and Claveria, Misamis Oriental: Implications to Policy Formulation
DP 2015-43Readiness of the Philippine Agriculture and Fisheries Sectors for the 2015 ASEAN Economic Community: A Rapid Appraisal
DP 2015-42Implications of a Philippine-US Free Trade Agreement on Trade in Goods: An Indicator Approach
DP 2015-41An Assessment of the Community Mortgage Programs of the Social Housing Finance Corporation
DP 2015-40Property Damage Recovery and Coping Behavior of Households Affected by an Extreme Flood Event in Marikina City, Metro Manila, Philippines
DP 2015-39Industrial Policies and Implementation: Philippine Automotive Manufacturing as a Lens
DP 2015-38Social Enterprises and Employment: Mainstreaming SMEs and Employment Creation
DP 2015-37Doing Business: A Review of Literature and Its Role in APEC 2015
DP 2015-36The BPO Challenge: Leveraging Capabilities, Creating Opportunities
DP 2015-35Furthering the Implementation of AEC Blueprint Measures
DP 2015-34 (Revised)Evaluation of the APEC Environmental Goods Initiative: A Dominant Supplier Approach
DP 2015-33Green and Gold: Promoting Eco-Adventure and Cultural Tourism for Inclusive and Sustainable Growth
DP 2015-32Toward an Effective Regulatory Management System: Philippines
DP 2015-31Rapid Appraisal of the Postharvest Facilities Projects in the Philippines
DP 2015-30A Review of the Accreditation System for Philippine Higher Education Institutions
DP 2015-29Toward an Enabling Set of Rules of Origin for the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnertship
DP 2015-28Grassroots Participatory Budgeting Process in Negros Province
DP 2015-27Bottom-up Budgeting FY 2015 Assessment: Camarines Sur
DP 2015-26Bottom-up Budgeting Process Assessment: Agusan del Norte
DP 2015-25Assessment of the Bottom-up Budgeting Process for FY 2015
DP 2015-24A System-wide Study of the Logistics Industry in the Greater Capital Region
DP 2015-23Analysis of Specific Legal and Trade-related Issues in a Possible PH-EU Economic Partnership: The Philippine Constitution, Competition Policy, Government Procurement, Intellectual Property Rights, Dispute Settlement, and Trade Remedies
DP 2015-22How Are Firms Responding to Philippine Free Trade Agreements?
DP 2015-21Deepening Regional Cooperation for Disaster Recovery and Reconstruction: A Proposal for Proactive Approach to Risk Financing
DP 2015-20Building Philippine SMEs Resilience to Natural Disasters
DP 2015-19Inputs for Philippine Hosting of APEC 2015: Food Security
DP 2015-18Increasing Economic Opportunities of Women in the APEC
DP 2015-17Supporting WTO and Pathways to the Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific (FTAAP)
DP 2015-16People-to-People Tourism in APEC: Facilitating Cross-Border Entry and Exit, with Special Focus on ASEAN
DP 2015-15Philippine Priorities in Expanding APEC-Wide Connectivity through Infrastructure Development
DP 2015-14Supply Chain Connectivity: Enhancing Participation in the Global Supply Chain
DP 2015-13Establishing the Linkages of Human Resource Development with Inclusive Growth
DP 2015-12Toward and Beyond APEC Summit 2015: Key Issues and Challenges of Professional Service Mobility
DP 2015-11APEC 2015: Global Value Chains and Services
DP 2015-10Development Finance and Aid in the Philippines: Policy, Institutional Arrangements and Flows
DP 2015-09Assessment of the DSWD SEA-K Strategy
DP 2015-08Targeting the Agricultural Poor: The Case of PCIC`s Special Programs
DP 2015-07Review of Design and Implementation of the Agricultural Insurance Programs of the Philippine Crop Insurance Corporation
DP 2015-06Does Innovation Mediate Good Firm Performance?
DP 2015-05A Comprehensive Philippine Government Strategy on the Competitiveness of the Services Sector
DP 2015-04Competition Reform in the Philippine Rice Sector
DP 2015-03Risk Aversion among Smallholder High-value Crop Farmers in the Southern Philippines
DP 2015-02Diagnostic Report on the Bus Transport Sector
DP 2015-01Inequalities in Income, Labor, and Education: The Challenge of Inclusive Growth