Publications

DP 2014-12Millennium Development Goals Scenarios to 2015 and Beyond: An Integrated Micro-Macro Modelling Approach
Briones, Roehlano M.

The Philippines has made considerable progress in attaining the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). However, achieving all the targets remains a daunting challenge, with goals for poverty, education, and maternal mortality unlikely to be attained by 2015. Focus has now shifted to informing the post-2015 development agenda, based on future scenarios for the macroeconomy and the MDGs. In this study, such assessment is done using an integrated macro-micro modelling approach, using the Maquette for MDG Simulation (MAMS), calibrated to Philippine data, over the period 2009-2025.

Findings for the scenario analysis are as follows: In the Base or business-as-usual scenario, MDG targets for household water and sanitation, as well as child health, will be met (or approximated) by 2015. However, those for education and maternal health will be attained in 2025 and 2021, respectively. The goal for poverty will not be achieved even by 2025. The national debt follows a downward trajectory over the simulation period.

Meanwhile in the alternative scenarios, significantly higher outlays for primary education, health, and infrastructure (equivalent to 2% of GDP) lead to earlier attainment of the education and maternal health goals (2019 and 2016, respectively); likewise significant gains will be realized in terms of per capita income and poverty reduction by 2025. Tax financing of higher outlays maintains the debt reduction path in the Base; however, financing through increased borrowing from abroad leads to persistent escalation of foreign debt. Hence, government should be cautious about proposals for dramatic increases in social spending and infrastructure to more quickly close development gaps, unless it is able to accompany increases in spending with commensurate tax effort.

keywords:computable general equilibrium (CGE), fiscal sustainability, poverty reduction, human development, millennium development goals (MDG), inclusive growth
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DP # Title
DP 2016-36Wages, Housework, and Attitudes in the Philippines
DP 2016-35Australian SME Micro-Offshoring Opportunities in the Philippines: An Expanding Niche Market?
DP 2016-34Weather Events and Welfare in the Philippine Households
DP 2016-33The Role of Indicators in Policy Formulation: The Case of Maternal and Child Health Care Policy in the Philippines
DP 2016-32Economic Gain, Age Structure Transition, and Population Groups in the Philippines
DP 2016-31Consumption, Labor Income, and Lifecycle Deficit by Urban-Rural Residence and by Income Group: Philippines NTA 1991, 1999, and 2011
DP 2016-30Potential Effects of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership on the Philippine Economy
DP 2016-29Impact Assessment of the National Greening Program of the DENR: Scoping or Process Evaluation Phase - Institutional Component
DP 2016-28Who Weans with Commodity Price Shocks? Rice Prices and Breastfeeding in the Philippines
DP 2016-27Impact Assessment of the National Greening Program of the Department of Environment and Natural Resources: Scoping or Process Evaluation Phase (Economic Component)
DP 2016-26Results of the Assessment of the Utilization and Impacts of the Motor Vehicle User's Charge in the Philippines
DP 2016-25Camarines Sur Assessment of the Bottom-Up Budgeting Process for FY 2016
DP 2016-24Bottom-Up Budgeting Process Assessment: Zamboanga del Norte
DP 2016-23Assessment of the Bottom-Up Budgeting Process for FY 2016
DP 2016-22Results of the Process and Impact Evaluation for Selected Government Water Supply and Sanitation Programs
DP 2016-21Putting Prevention of Childhood Stunting into the Forefront of the Nutrition Agenda: A Nutrition Sector Review
DP 2016-20Service Innovation in Philippine Industries
DP 2016-19Review and Assessment of the Students Grants-in-Aid Program for Poverty Alleviation (SGP-PA) and Expanded SGP-PA
DP 2016-18Preliminary Assessment of the Shared Service Facilities
DP 2016-17Cross-Country Econometric Study on the Impact of Fiscal Incentives on Foreign Direct Investment
DP 2016-16Examining Trends in ICT Statistics: How Does the Philippines Fare in ICT?
DP 2016-15Post-EPIRA Impacts of Electric Power Industry Competition Policies
DP 2016-14The Impact of Improving Capital Stock on the Utilization of Local Health Services: Preliminary Findings on the Evaluation of the Health Facilities Enhancement Program
DP 2016-13Assessment of the Sustainable Livelihood Program - Employment Facilitation Process
DP 2016-12Technical and Institutional Evaluation of Selected National and Communal Irrigation Systems and Characterization of Irrigation Sector Governance Structure
DP 2016-11National Greening Program Assessment Project: Environmental Component - Process Evaluation Phase
DP 2016-10Estimation of Vulnerability to Poverty Using a Multilevel Longitudinal Model: Evidence from the Philippines
DP 2016-09Risks, Shocks, Building Resilience: Philippines
DP 2016-08Are Higher Education Institutions Responsive to Changes in the Labor Market?
DP 2016-07The National System of Technical Vocational Education and Training in the Philippines: Review and Reform Ideas
DP 2016-06Growing Inclusive Businesses in the Philippines: The Role of Government Policies and Programs
DP 2016-05Results of an Impact Evaluation Study on DepED's School-Based Feeding Program
DP 2016-04Examining Processes in Research and Development at the Department of Science and Technology
DP 2016-03Social Protection in APEC: In Pursuit of Inclusive Growth
DP 2016-02Investing in Human Capital for Inclusive Growth: Focus on Higher Education
DP 2016-01Inadequate N Application of Rice Farmers in the Philippines: Problems, Causes, Solutions
		
		
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