MANILA, Philippines — A study released by the Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) has revealed that severe classroom congestion persists in several regions despite the country’s declining fertility rate, according to the Second Congressional Commission on Education (EDCOM 2).
The study, titled “Low Fertility, Ageing Buildings, and School Congestion in the Philippines: Tailwinds, Headwinds, and Some Policy Options” (PIDS Discussion Paper No. 2025-10), projects that while national public school enrollment is likely to decline in most regions until 2040—and potentially until 2060—school congestion remains a major challenge in key areas like the National Capital Region (NCR), CALABARZON (Region IV-A), Region XII, and the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM).
In 2021, these regions recorded the highest median student-to-classroom ratios in public elementary schools. In NCR, 90% of students in the Northern Manila District were enrolled in congested classrooms, defined as having at least 50 students per room. Other high-congestion areas included Southern Manila (76.8%), Eastern Manila (60.1%), Rizal (66.0%), and Cavite (57.7%).
The study found that most classroom shortages occur at the elementary level, followed by junior and senior high schools. Even with fewer births, the country could face a shortage of 58,000 to 81,000 classrooms by 2040 if no new ones are built, researchers warned.
EDCOM 2 Executive Director Dr. Karol Mark Yee emphasized the need for a more strategic approach, considering factors such as population growth, vulnerability to disasters, the projected deterioration of school buildings, and available capacity in private schools.
“Investments in new classrooms must go beyond simply replacing dilapidated ones—we need to expand capacity to keep up with demand,” Yee said.
The study also noted that without new construction or repairs, only 18.6% of public school rooms from 2023 will remain in good condition by 2040, raising concerns about the country’s aging and disaster-prone infrastructure.
Senator Sherwin Gatchalian, EDCOM 2 Co-Chairperson, stressed the need for innovative solutions, such as cost-sharing programs between the national and local governments and the use of public-private partnerships. “We cannot go about our business-as-usual approach. We need to implement multiple strategies to address school congestion,” he said.
House Co-Chair Rep. Roman Romulo echoed similar concerns, saying double shifts in classrooms are unsustainable and that expanding the voucher system or accelerating classroom construction should be prioritized.
Education Secretary Sonny Angara has earlier expressed support for a proposed Public-Private Partnership (PPP) initiative to help build 105,000 classrooms, a move seen to significantly reduce the current backlog, which government reports suggest may otherwise take up to 55 years to address.
